Maestri's Musings

Houston Single-Family Home Sales Improve 81% since June

April Maestri — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 07:21:00 GMT

Houston Single-Family Home Sales Improve 81% Since June

The 2009-2010 IRS Tax Credit for home buyers was extended and expanded in November. The new expiration date is April 30, 2010 and the tax credit now includes current homeowners, not just First-Time Homebuyers and income limits were expanded to $225,000. For detailed information on this home buyer advantage, please click here.

With new incentives in hand, every month that passes in 2009, shows great improvement in comparison to the previous months’. The table below shows the difference between the market experienced in February, June and October YTD 2009. As you can see, as 2009 progresses, the single-family housing market is slowly marching toward a healthier market.

Houston Market Improvement Comparison 2009 of Single-Family Homes
Market Indicator	February ‘09	June ‘09	Oct. ‘09	% Change from June ‘09
# units sold	-24%	-20%	-11%	+81%
Dollar volume sold	-33%	-24%	-14%	+71%
Average Sales Price	-12%	-6%	-4%	+50%
Median Sales Price	-8%	-2%	-1%	+50%
# of Pending Sales	-23%	-21%	-14%	+50%
Active Listings	-20%	-22%	-21%	-.46%

A summary of October YTD market statistics compared to last year:

Sales are down from October YTD 2008 by 11% with 45,391 single-family homes.
Dollar volume sold is down from October YTD 2008 by 14% with $9,202,482,156.
Average sales price is currently $202,738, down by 4%.
Median sales price is $153,000, down by 1% [half of the homes sold above and half below this midpoint range.
# of contracts written [pending] are 31,101 and that represents 14% fewer than found last year.
Active listings, a metric that is good if on a decline, are currently 27,758 or 21% less than last year. This is also a metric that in Houston is the exact opposite heard frequently in the national news.

The newly extended Homebuyer IRS Tax Credit should stimulate sales, particularly in the Spring of 2010 and it will be interesting to see if inventory continues to decline as it has in recent months. The IRS Tax Credit should boost Houston back to normal market conditions sooner than it would have on its own. Another added benefit to increasing home sales is that economists believe that for every home that is sold, regardless of the price, a $66,000 economic multiplier effect positively impacts the local market in which the home resides. The IRS Tax Credit is truly an economic stimulus that sparks the local economy.

What home price classes are the hottest selling in Houston right now? The following table indicates by price class the hottest selling price ranges in Houston in 2009:

Top Ten Selling Price Classes Houston Single-Family Real Estate Third Quarter YTD 2009
Price Class	Sales Year to Date	Active Listings	Months of Inventory
1. $200,000-$249,999	4,712	2,666	5.9
2. $250,000-$299,999	3,220	2,176	7.0
3. $300,000-$399,999	3,213	2,534	8.1
4. $130,000-$139,999	2,557	1,129	4.5
5. $120,000-$129,999	2,541	1,296	5.1
6. $110,000-$119,999	2,274	1,296	5.7
7. $140,000-$149,999	2,214	1,182	5.5
8. $150,000-$159,999	2,181	1,103	5.2
9. $90,000-$99,999	2,027	1,155	5.8
10. $160,000-$169,999	1,981	1,004	5.2

As you can see, the top 10 selling price classes in Houston range from a low of $90,000 to a high of $399,000, and therein lies the largest demand for single-family homes in the Houston Multiple Listing Service.

Prudential Gary Greene, Realtors® feels certain that fourth quarter 2009 sales will exceed fourth quarter 2008, which was interrupted by a devastating hurricane, economic uncertainty and a barrage of bad news. The Houston market has experienced a loss of confidence and uncertainty of the future, especially during the months following Hurricane Ike. The market improvement comparison table above indicates that our market is on the road to recovery. This market also spells opportunity, particularly with the IRS Tax Credit, to purchase a home before Houston experiences an upswing in the market, which inevitably will happen. The best time to capitalize on a “bounce-back” is before it bounces back.

HAR MLS HOTNESS INDEX SEPTEMBER 2009
Rank	Area	Area Name	Hotness Ratio	Pending Sales	Sales	Active Listings	Months Inventory
1	18	South Central	23.3	21	15	90	4.6
2	25	Far West	21.2	194	226	917	4.3
3	12	North	21.0	135	149	644	4.5
4	36	South Katy Area	19.5	133	213	682	3.1
5	21	Bellaire West	18.9	14	20	74	4.0
6	40	Montgomery County Southeast	17.2	49	66	285	7.3
7	11	Near North	16.9	73	83	431	5.7
8	37	Ft. Bend West	16.0	123	176	768	4.9
9	29	Ft. Bend Central	14.7	84	140	571	4.9
10	10	Hempstead East	14.3	100	174	700	4.8
11	3	Southeast	13.5	97	120	721	5.6
12	8	Bear Creek	13.4	99	177	740	5.0
13	6	Pasadena Area	13.0	54	87	416	5.0
14	30	Ft. Bend Southwest	12.4	74	99	595	6.0
15	43	Walker County	12.4	23	15	186	8.9
16	5	Brazoria County	12.2	165	214	1350	6.5
17	34	Aldine-Westfield Area	12.2	23	21	189	8.9
18	7	Clear Lake Area	12.0	71	146	591	4.5
19	13	Northwest	12.0	128	188	1070	5.8
20	15	Montgomery County Southwest	12.0	185	281	1548	6.1
21	38	Ft. Bend East	11.9	85	135	712	5.7
22	32	Far Northeast	11.7	50	113	427	5.2
23	14	Far Northwest	11.3	88	140	779	6.0
24	1	Northeast	11.1	116	195	1043	5.9
25	20	Bellaire South	11.0	40	82	365	4.7
26	2	East	10.7	123	148	1153	7.5
27	28	Alief Area	10.6	34	50	322	5.9
28	53	Chambers County	9.7	14	24	145	7.2
29	19	Montgomery County Northeast	9.5	44	61	463	7.5
30	35	Hempstead West	9.3	54	127	578	5.4
31	31	West	9.0	32	63	356	6.3
32	24	Spring Branch	8.3	28	49	337	7.1
33	26	Waller County	7.7	12	16	155	9.5
34	4	South	7.0	21	40	301	9.9
35	52	Liberty County	6.9	15	25	217	8.6
36	33	Galveston County	6.9	159	302	2305	8.7
37	9	Central North	6.9	71	169	1030	6.9
38	55	Wharton County	6.7	8	12	119	11.3
39	39	Montgomery County Northwest	6.7	53	112	792	8.5
40	42	Trinity County	6.6	8	10	121	17.1
41	44	Polk County	6.3	20	31	318	13.3
42	64	San Jacinto County	6.3	11	15	176	12.4
43	22	Central West	6.2	22	38	355	10.9
44	23	Memorial	6.0	21	47	350	8.4
45	17	Southwest	4.8	32	76	665	9.7
46	16	Central	4.0	22	53	556	11.3
47	57	Austin County	3.1	5	11	159	13.

Maestri's Musings

Houston Single-Family Home Sales Improve 81% since June

Houston Single-Family Home Sales Improve 81% Since June

Data derived from the Houston Association of Realtors® Real Estate Information Services and compiled by Toni Nelson, Director of Strategic Initiatives for Prudential Gary Greene, Realtors®. Market statistics occurring outside the HAR MLS are not reflected in this report.

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